Identifying a research problem, the theoretical frameworks to guide research and relevant ethical considerations are central to the success of any nursing research project. A research problem refers to a knowledge gap or an unresolved issue in current nursing practice that the research is interested in examining, analyzing or resolving (Aslam, & Emmanuel, 2010, p. 48). A research problem statement guides the entire research and can be described as a systematic flow of arguments and ideas about a research topic. The problem statement introduces the topic, explains its relevance, and identifies gaps in knowledge that the research would fill. The significance of a research problem and its researcheability determine whether the entire research is worth pursuing or not. The researcheability of a problem depends on the quality of research questions formulated from the problem. Such questions should be specific and precise to enable the researcher to identify variables and participants easily.
The only way to formulate an innovative research question is to conduct a thorough literature review. A literature review refers to an analysis of existing research relevant to the problem being investigated in order to discover what is already known and the knowledge gaps that new research would address (Boswell & Cannon, 2011, p. 118). A literature review also enables the researcher to know how the existing knowledge was gathered in order to detect any methodological and ethical issues the researcher is likely to encounter. In summary, a literature review serves specific objectives including clarifying a research problem and its significance, providing ideas about how to resolve a nursing problem, providing theoretical models for conducting and organizing research, explaining the evolution of a research problem and providing a background for interpreting and analyzing new knowledge. Conducting a literature review enables the researcher to avoid repeating studies. If the researcher needs to replicate a previous study, he or she would use the literature review to identify areas that need improvement or overhaul to make the study more effective (Boswell & Cannon, 2011, p. 118).
Theoretical Models and Frameworks in Nursing Research
Nursing research is based on coherent reservoirs of organized knowledge called nursing theories. Nursing theories serve numerous purposes including describing phenomena, explaining relationships, guiding interventions and predicting outcomes (Meleis, 2011, p. 33). Theoretical frameworks in nursing research can be described in terms of the purposes they serve or levels of abstraction.
Classification of Nursing Theories Based on Level of Abstraction
The main categories of nursing theories based on level of abstraction are grand–, middle-range- and situation-specific theories. Grand theories describe the nature, purpose and aims of nursing care (Meleis, 2011, p. 415). These theories are based on knowledge gathered through research, experience, insight and observation. Grand theories enable researchers to link together large numbers of concepts and relationships in nursing practice. However, grand theories are highly abstract and thus difficult to test empirically. Grand theories emerged during the 1980s and were the first attempts to use theoretical frameworks in nursing research. Examples include Newman’s “Health as Expanding Consciousness”, Johnson’s “Behavioral Systems” and Roy’s “Person as Adaptive System” (Smith &Liehr, 2009, p. 7).
Middle-range theories are less abstract and address a limited range of knowledge as compared to grand theories. Middle-range theories explain specific concepts concerning educational, clinical and administrative aspects of nursing practice (Meleis, 2011, p. 418). Although they address specific nursing concepts, middle-range theories address a wide variety of nursing issues in different areas of care. The high level of specificity and operationability of midrange theories allows for empirical investigation. The bulk of the nursing theories developed in the 1990s falls in the category of middle range theories. Examples are uncertainty, social support, comfort, community empowerment and quality of life theories (Peterson & Bredow, 2009, p. 167).
Situation–specific theories differ from grand theories and middle-range theories because they address specific nursing concepts related to specific area of nursing practice and specific populations. These theories apply to historical and social contexts of individual researches and provide a background for investigating and interpreting research outcomes in specific situations (Meleis, 2011, p. 418). Other names used to refer to situation-specific theories include microtheories or practice theories. As the name suggests, practice theories are action-oriented and their goal is to drive change in nursing practice. This explains why they have a narrow scope, high degree of specificity and accessibility, minimal level of abstraction and limited generalizability. Research questions based on practice theories usually specify the context of the study (Smith & Liehr, 2009, p. 7). Examples include a model for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases among adolescents and theoretical framework for obesity intervention for African American women.
Classification of Theoretical Frameworks Based on Purpose
Theoretical frameworks can also be understood in terms of their purpose in nursing research and practice. Based on this criterion, nursing theories can be either descriptive or prescriptive. The goal of descriptive theories is to describe phenomena, relationships among variables and nursing interventions (Meleis, 2011, p. 34). Descriptive theories guide nursing professionals in their effort to accomplish important tasks such as assessment, diagnosis and intervention design and implementation. Nursing researchers use descriptive theories to highlight the effective and efficient evidence-based practices that maximize the benefits of nursing care. Descriptive theories have limited predictive role and mainly help researchers to sort out meanings and observations when investigating a certain phenomenon.
Researchers can use descriptive theoretical frameworks to construct hypothesis, anticipate the consequences of a phenomenon and derive inferences from observations. Therefore, descriptive theories can guide nursing research independently. The level of descriptive role in relation to explanatory role determines whether a descriptive theory is a labeling theory or an explanatory theory. A labeling theory merely describes a phenomena while an explanatory theory goes a step further and explains relationships among phenomena and the various elements of a given phenomena (Meleis, 2011, p. 34). In nursing research, descriptive theories are used to describe nurse-client relationships, health and illness, human-environmental relationships, interventions and outcomes
While descriptive theories enlighten researchers about the status of a problem or a concept, prescriptive theories are action oriented, meaning that their goal is to mobilize change in practice. A prescriptive theory suggests areas that need to change and specify ways in which to implement change (Meleis, 2011, p. 35). The theory also includes details about the components of the proposed strategy and their functions, the target beneficiary of the new intervention, the conditions under which the new intervention would operate and the likely outcomes of the proposed strategy. A prescriptive theoretical framework thus addresses many elements related to the proposed intervention including environmental, social, and personal factors.
Ethical and Cultural Implications of Implementing Nursing Research
Ethical and cultural considerations constitute an important component of nursing research because of the need to recognize and respect individual rights and freedoms. Researchers are continually reminded to conduct ethically sound studies by complying with the ethical principles of autonomy, beneficence, justice, and confidentiality (Olsen, 2003, p. 125). Although these ethical principles are perceived as universal, the practical approach to implementing them must incorporate cultural differences in the recognition and use of these ethics. The International Center for Nursing Ethics (ICNE) provides a general framework for conducting ethical research but allows researchers to accommodate the views of local populations regarding ethical matters. In other words, the researcher should be accommodative to the moral beliefs and practices of the study population as long as they do not violate human values.
The focus of debate in nursing research ethics is the question of the degree to which western values should be accepted as universal ethics. Stakeholders in nursing ethics recognize that accepting western norms as standard ethics applicable to all nations would be a form of ethical imperialism that fails to recognize cultural diversity (Harrowing et al., 2010, p. 73). The ICNE recommends that the general ethical principles of justice, respect for persons and community, beneficence, and contextual caring should be viewed as guiding ideas rather than universal laws. The concepts of justice, respect for person and beneficence are all derived from western philosophy and thus cannot be prescribed to all cultures. Respect for persons is implemented by respecting the autonomy of participants. Beneficence refers to ensuring the research processes and procedures bring maximum good and minimize harm to persons and communities (Olsen, 2003, p. 125). Justice refers to fair distribution of the benefits and consequences of research among the individuals and communities involved. Issues may arise due to cultural differences in the perception of an individual versus the community. Some cultures are collectivists while others are individualistic, meaning that when a conflict between individuals and the community occurs, one cannot simply dismiss the demands of either of the two sides.
Ethical nursing research should satisfy several initial conditions. First, the local community should be given adequate opportunity to participate in the research (Harrowing et al., 2010, p. 73). In other words, the research purpose, methods and overall implementation process should be designed with the target community in mind. However, the actual practice of incorporating the local community in implementing research is not clearly defined and issues may arise concerning engaging the local community in a culturally sensitive manner. Researchers should submit their projects for committee reviews to ensure that they are ethically sound. Second, the research should be potentially beneficial to the participants or the community in which it is conducted. This requirement shields participating individuals and communities against exploitation and other forms of abuse (Harrowing et al., 2010, p. 74). Finally, the researcher should justify his or her choice of the study population using ethically acceptable reasons. To meet this condition, the researcher should use empirical evidence to support all claims about the suitability of the study group.
A successful research project requires careful planning and passion to implement. A thorough literature review will enable the researcher to formulate a focused research question that captures the significance of an existing knowledge gap or problem that can be addressed through research. Theoretical frameworks guide the researcher in designing and implementing a coherent project based on sound theory. Nursing researchers would find situation-specific theories quite useful since most of their research is directed towards improving an existing intervention or developing new interventions. Since the main goal of nursing research is to ensure evidence-based care for humans, ethical soundness must be prioritized.
Aslam, S. & Emmanuel, P. (2010). Formulating a researcheable question: A critical step for facilitating good clinical research. Indian Journal of Sexually Transmitted Diseases and AIDS. 31(1), 47-50.
Boswell, C., & Cannon, S. (2011). Introduction to nursing research: Incorporating evidence-based practice. Sudbury, Mass: Jones and Bartlett Publishers.
Harrowing, J. N., Mill, J. J., Spiers, J. J., Kulig, J. J., & Kipp, W. W. (2010). Culture, context and community: ethical considerations for global nursing research. International Nursing Review, 57(1), 70-77. doi:10.1111/j.1466-7657.2009.00766.x
Meleis, A. I. (2011). Theoretical nursing: Development and progress. Philadelphia: Wolters Kluwer Health/Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Olsen, D. (2003). Ethical considerations in international nursing research: A report from the international centre for nursing ethics. Nursing Ethics, 10(2), 122-137. doi:10.1191/0969733003ne587oa
Peterson, S. J., & Bredow, T. S. (2009). Middle range theories: Application to nursing research. Philadelphia: Wolters Kluwer Health/Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Smith, M. J., & Liehr, P. R. (2008). Middle Range Theory for Nursing. New York: Springer Pub. Co.
Research Design and Methodology
Methodology refers to the techniques used by a researcher to gather information that is reliable and sufficient to make sound conclusions. A research can be qualitative, quantitative or both depending on the source and sensitivity of the information. As a research methodology, researchers have often used questionnaires in applied social studies to answer questions, to solve problems, assess needs, set goals, and to establish baselines that form a basis for future comparisons. Further, this methodology is applicable in analyzing trends over an epoch, in addition to describing what is in existence at the time of the research, its amount, and its context (Scruggs & Mastropieri 2006). SMEs constitute a large portion of the many categories of organizations that drive the economy of any given country in the world (Richard 2012). Because of this, amount of data that one will end up with in a research on SMEs will definitely have a quantitative aspect to it necessitating the use of a tool capable of establishing relationships among variables. The second reason for adopting questionnaires lies in the need to collect data from people, which is a subjective process that requires a carefully structured approach to the problem. Finally, previous studies on research methodologies show that questionnaires permit sampling, a technique that use a selected percentage of a population (Benz & Newman 1998).
The method employed in this research has a multitude of advantages including quality and adequacy of data. The technique is capable of obtaining information derived from a large population and well suited to collecting demographic data of a sample. This is because qualitative approach allow for the inclusion of a number of variables garnered during data collection process. Further, the adoption of questionnaire based study required minimal investment in terms of developing and administering the data collection tools. This method made it easy for the researcher to generalize the results due to its statistical nature. Despite these advantages, there is a probability of the target population failing to respond. It is as well likely to receive responses that contradict the objectives of the study. In such situations, the researcher must revise the questionnaires to suit his or her goals. However, during the research, the greater percentage of the responses received coincided with the objectives of the study as stated in chapter one of this documentation.
The research relied on both open-ended and closed-ended questionnaires in order to obtain more reliable data on the topic, Small and medium-sized enterprise. The researcher sent the questionnaires inform of softcopy and hardcopy through email along with physical addresses to the respondents. This is a measure to ensure that there is a minimal chance of no response (AlSagheer 2010). Nevertheless, the researcher also employed interviews to increase the subjective feature of the research. It was pertinent to adopt these two tools in the research due to a number of advantages associated with them. The use of questionnaires was motivated by there being fewer errors in data collection, in addition to assured confidentiality. Questionnaires also allowed a respondent the maximum amount of time he or she needed to respond to a question, which ensured vital information is not left out. The researcher expected to encounter busy respondents, and it was crucial to allocate them adequate time to answer the questionnaires.
The use of face-to-face interviews allowed the researcher to collect a wide range of data especially due to its flexible nature. This is because the technique allows one to capture verbal inflexion, body language, and gestures, which are an insight of the direction the interview takes, and hint on the stand a respondent has on the issue under discussion. In this case, verbal appraisals complemented the questionnaires in situations where a respondent was less likely to respond to the latter.
The competence of data collection technique employed relied on various aspects like sampling and the mode of quality check applied. The first task was to develop a sampling design that is central to selecting a target population. The sampling plan described the approach that the research adopted in selecting its sample, provided justification for the sample size, in addition to describing how to determine it, and discussed the choice of media used in the administration of the questions. The study media in this research included face-to-face interviews, questionnaires (sent via emails and addresses), and telephone calls when necessary. As previously noted, the target population for this research is a society of busy individuals and the media chosen must abide by their schedules. The second step involved developing a measure of estimating the target population and checking the reliability of the data collected, in addition to the data collection exercise. This was a critical process in the research, which included identification of the response rate that the researcher desired along with the ideal level of precision and accuracy. These two steps were necessary when specifying the inputs that the respondents were to give. Unlike in other forms of surveys where a researcher can clarify certain questions spontaneously, it was imperative to have all the questions being self-explanatory. This increases the accuracy of responses and reduces the time taken to clarify ambiguous questions. The next subsection is a discussion of some of the key elements that the researcher considered while developing the design.
To collect the data, the researcher had to conduct interviews with the representatives of each company or issue them with the questionnaires that they answered over the allocated duration. The interviewers staged on a one-to-one type of interview, and it occurred in offices, hotel rooms, and sometimes over the telephone. Telephone interviews had a limit of 45 minutes while others could last longer depending on the type of responses given by the interviewees. In several instances, the respondents were the managers and senior administrators in the organization. This made it possible to explore their past in an academic and career aspect in an in-depth manner. Despite some respondents being representatives of certain organizations, they were able to answer most of questions to the satisfaction of the researcher. Semi-structured questions were difficult for a number of respondents due to specificity of information sought (Carl 2006). In this respect, the contribution of top executives was necessary to gather sufficient data. During the study, the interviewer would issue a question thereby engage the answerer in a conversation. It was important to record the conversation for future reviews. The researcher had the role of directing the discussion by refocusing each conversation towards the desired answers. This way, it was possible to uncover contextual data relevant to the epitome of the research.
Self-reporting questionnaires had a highly structured format that made it possible for the respondents to answer them without the interference of the interviewer. On that note, the researcher did not have to request direct contact with the respondents. As well, the questionnaires had both open-ended and close-ended questions hence leaving room for self evaluation. In order to evaluate the feedback, the researcher used the Likert scale where the respondents choose their degree of conformity to an answer. Below is an extensive discussion by the researcher on how he or she implemented the self-reporting questionnaires.
Sample selection is the product of the population size, available sample media, homogeneity of data, cost associated with the research, and the level of accuracy desired (Koul 2009). Qualitative researches require information that is less prone to researcher bias as it would lead to faulty results and discussion (La Pira 2010). It was important to minimize potential bias arising from variation in firm size and location by confining the research sample frame to a certain economic sector within a limited geographic location (Fadhil & Fadhil 2011). Research shows that certain business thrive in certain regions depending on their factors of production. To reduce the probability of these factors affecting the outcome of the research, the researcher chose the respondents randomly from a list of some of the successful SMEs in Canada. Many of the SMEs that fail lack an element of organization and sound decision-making (Cavico & Mujtaba 2009). In order to explain this, it was important to examine 20 SME businesses that are successful in Canada and have been under the leadership of certified managers or seniors executives. This framework made it possible to look into the various factors that differentiate organizations led by skilled personnel in comparison to others that use impartial judgment in place of proper management.
Sample Size Selection
Sample sizes depended on the level of accuracy expected, amount of data available and the statistical power that the researcher was targeting to achieve. Additionally, the magnitude of samples was determined by the ease of access to respondents. Most respondents had busy schedules hence hampering the interviewing of a large sample size. The process of sample size determination relied on the previously highlighted factor that was further complicated by the geographical decentralization of the respondents. However, 32 respondents participated in the survey surpassing the set target of 20 respondents. One possible source of bias was how to identify various organizations uniquely under leadership achieved through apprenticeship, an undergraduate, or a postgraduate course (Scruggs & Mastropieri 2006). Many organizations did not prefer to present such personal information to strangers unless under strict privacy clauses. To achieve this, each of the candidate organizations received a physical letter assuring them that the data collected was for research purposes only. Further, the research targeted SMEs that have been in operation for not more than five years. This took care of the firm-size criterion besides the number of employees currently working in the organizations.
This research implemented the data analysis tools suggested by La Pira (2010, p. 12); to be exact, Cognitive Style Index (CSI). As a tool, the researcher used CSI to analyze data gathered during the research to determine all the managers’ levels of intuition versus analysis in the context of their work. To obtain the desired results, all the questions in the research worded such that they either reflected an intuitive approach or an analytic approach. The examiner then used the answers provided by the respondents to determine the number of approaches used by the target organizations. A manager’s or senior executive’s background in business education was noted not to be an indication that decisions in their organizations were wholly analytical. However, the researcher realized that most of the managers and senior executives practiced a single-minded approach to most problems in their organizations. Using The Five-Style Approach of CSI, that is intuitive, quasi-intuitive, adaptive, quasi-analytic, and analytic, with score ranges of 0-28, 29-38, 39-45, 46-52, and 53-76 respectively, the researcher was able to analyze the results of the research as the next chapter will reveal.
Scruggs and Mastropieri (2006, p, 45) propose an ideal research design that offer practical solutions to descriptive explores by presenting the best means of addressing arising study questions. The number of SMEs in Canada is significantly large, and it was important to have a viable number of study subjects, in this case not less than 20 companies. It was the aim of this research to capture the role of business education in the SME sector, and geographic limits deprecated the results. However, this research adopted the mail analysis method that Koul (2009, p. 69) suggested after considering the fact that it not only served the purpose of collecting data but also reduced the amount of time needed to complete the task successfully. Many of the viable study subjects have significant spatial variation, and it would have been expensive to move around collecting data from each of them hence the need to adopt the mail-survey method to complement the interviews. After collecting the desired amount of data, the researcher used Cognitive Style Index meant for managerial and professional groups’ analysis to evaluate the outcome of the research (La Pira 2010). The next chapter delves into this aspect of research and gives elaborate explanations and justification for the results and attempts to deduce their meaning in the context of the research.
AlSagheer, A 2010, ‘The Role Of Business Education At The K-12 Level: Faculty Perceptions On Establishing A Business Education Department In The College Of Basic Education At The Public Authority For Applied Education And Training’, International Business & Economics Research Journal, vol.9, no.11, pp. 5-16.
Benz, C & Newman, I 1998, Qualitative-quantitative research methodology: Exploring the interactive continuum, Southern Illinois University Press, Carbondale.
Carl, J 2006, ‘Entrepreneurship in American Higher Education’, Kauffman the Foundation of Entrepreneurship, vol.1, no.1, pp.7-28.
Cavico, F & Mujtaba, B 2009, ‘The state of business schools, business education, and business ethics’, Journal of Academic and Business Ethics,vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1-7.
Fadhil, N & Fadhil, N 2011, ‘Managing Company’s Financial Among Small And Medium Non-Manufacturing Companies’, Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 17-36.
Koul, L 2009, Methodology Of Educational Research, 4Enew E, Vikas Publishing House, New Delhi.
La Pira, F 2010, ‘Entrepreneurial intuition, an empirical approach’, Journal of Management and Marketing Research, vol.1, no.1, p.1-22.
Richard, L 2012, ‘On the importance of education’, Business Economics, vol.5, no.47, pp.90-96.
Scruggs, T & Mastropieri, M 2006, Applications of research methodology, Elsevier JAI, Amsterdam.
Deception in Intel Applied to Iran’s Nuclear Program
When countries attempt to win competitive advantage over another, they are eventually searching for means to manipulate the behavior of their opponents in relation to their own worldview. One such tool that is being employed by states is the tactic of deception and denial. This tactic touches on the military, monetary, and diplomatic areas of a countries’ power when employed strategically. A deception and deceit tactic not only endeavors to manipulate the thinking of critical decision-makers in target nations, but more significantly, lead to actions by the deluded that help the deceiver. This research paper therefore explores in detail the various dimensions through which deception and denial tactic can be effective policy predictive tools to investigate ongoing nuclear programs, with emphasis on application of this tool by Iran on its nuclear programs.1
In an exemplification of a potential application of deception and denial tactic facing the United States, this research will focus on one of the most difficult international security predicaments facing the United States today: the suppression of Iran nuclear strategy and the restitution of stability in the Persian Gulf regions. First, I will state the major research question of my proposal and explain why my research question is important. I will also identify the most significant issues that are raised by my major research question, and the preliminary conclusions I expect to assess in the research. I will do a literature review in which I will describe nuclear programs and denial in Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, and the views of proponents and opponents of nuclear proliferation. I will also outline my methodology and explain why I chose my cases and variables. I will give a brief overview of Pakistan‘s and Iran‘s nuclear weapons program and conclude my proposal by showcasing the current consequences of a future with an Iranian nuclear weapons.
The research question I wish to explore is: How is the deception and denial literature in the intelligence fields useful as a predictive policy tool to investigate ongoing nuclear programs? No subject that has received more attention in American intelligence and strategy-formulation circles than Iran and its nuclear agenda. Regrettably, it is exceptional for intelligence in fields like this to be completely truthful and perfect, as the Iraq case jogs our memories. Intelligence is difficult since numerous inferences are typically feasible and observers are subject to both cognitive and sentimental preconceptions, particularly the propensity to see what they anticipate and to make judgments that conform to emotional and political needs. Therefore, it is not shocking that countries in disagreement usually employ deception and denial tactics to delude each other. To be maximally successful, intelligence has to be adequate to policy-architects to identify their questions but not so near as to feel pressed to provide the preferred answers. In general, then, intelligence is intensely concerned with policy on Iran, but experiences intimidating handicaps due to deceit and denial tactics.
The Iranian government has applied various techniques comprising the concealment of nuclear machinery, employment of double agents, and several tactics of changing diplomatic channels in the P5+1 nuclear dialogue to keep the Western countries confused and intelligence on Iranian nuclear capacity unclear.2 Iran has proceeded to rely strongly on deceit and deception tactics to hide the actual nature of its nuclear program and expand its stakes in Iraq to the detriment of the U.S. and its Arab associates. The United States has made a series of efforts in trying to control Iran, but none of these methods has proved effective. Iran has apparently manipulated around the United States and Western diplomatic attempts to occupy the regime with deceit and deception through backlines and public meetings such as the P5+1 dialogue.
Economic sanctions are a defective tactic, and while latest sanctions have negatively impacted on the daily live of Iranians, it has not stopped business dealings from willing parties seeking to make huge gains from the heavily sanctioned nation. A military intervention in Iran bears a huge cost: a land war in a nation as rocky as Iran is almost impracticable, and the U.S. does not presently have the forces to contribute to such an undertaking. The advantages of the United States military operation in Iran have until now to compensate the costs. Presented with a list of bad options to counter the numerous nuclear programs in Iran, denial and deceit strategy could offer smart solutions to the U.S. in tackling the Iranian dilemma.
As one would anticipate, the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program is heavily based on deception. Iran gave a vague impression to Western intelligence on its nuclear program enough to cause the cost of engaging military hits on its facilities excruciatingly high; it constructed a plausibly strong deterrent against assault while delaying to progress toward a nuclear weapons capacity. The world may have limited options but to choose a rapprochement with the Iranians that would create a consensus on the stability and containment of nuclear countries such as Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan.3 The irregularity of the western forces outcrop could form a key aspect of a tactical denial and deceit crusade intended on Iran. Some of the deception plans that can assist in this strategy entail a leaked manuscript to the Washington daily on the pentagon’s conclusion of testing of the enormous ordinance penetrator and a Texan oil baron in Dubai revealing a forthcoming investment prospect in a short time.4 When a variety of bits of deceit are devised by a federal power from the apex and timed perfectly, a well arranged deceit of the United States forces action against Iran could be successful in getting the Iranians to the dialogue table at the United States opportune time.
This illustration serves as a suggestion on how a country can effectively apply the techniques of deceit and denial to both solve nuclear crisis in Iran and Iraq and therefore alleviate a critical foreign policy dilemma. With the deliberations in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) evaluation Conference in May of 2010, main nations have concentrated more seriously on minimizing open US and Iranian nuclear weapons accumulations, overturning Pyongyang’s nuclear upsurge, and blocking Iran’s nuclear weapons-associated dealings. The expectation is that each of these attempts will be reciprocally strengthening and result to extra nuclear weapons diminution accords between not only the United States and Iran, but the world’s other nuclear weapons countries. Lastly, it is anticipated that development in minimizing available nuclear weapons will convince the world’s nonnuclear weapons countries to make efforts and stay clean of hazardous national nuclear fuel-making actions and to open their civilian nuclear services to more invasive international examinations.5 This set of nuclear expectations, though, is doubtful to be entirely achieved. Excluding government revolution in either North Korea or Iran, neither Pyongyang’s repudiation of its nuclear weapons nor Iran’s termination of nuclear weapons-connected actions is all that feasible. As for additional diminutions in prevailing nuclear weapon stores, there may be some tactical weapons diminutions after the United States concur to the current follow up to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), but additional accords that might confine Iran much bigger amount of strategic nuclear weapons are implausible to happen effortlessly.
Iran sees its conservative military potentials declining more and more behind those of NATO and China. Consequently, Iran is more prone to enlarge its defense reliance on its millions of strategic nuclear weapons than it is to abolish or decrease them. In the meantime, the troubles of Iraq, Pakistan, and North Korea, and in favor of nuclear warhead diminutions appear even more isolated. Assuming that present nuclear drifts persist, then the following two decades will experiment international safety as it has by no means been experimented before. Prior to 2020, the Britain will get its nuclear might overtaken not only by India, Israel, and Pakistan. Soon afterwards, France will experience similar outcome. Compounding these advancements, even more nuclear weapons-prepared countries are probable to surface: As of 2015, at least 30 countries had proclaimed their wish to construct large reactors – previously, bomb starter gears – before 2030.6
No one of these states will support the grounds for nuclear weapons obliteration. Compounding these worrying developments is the rising recognition of “peaceful” nuclear power. Even though approximately every nuclear dealer country is now asserting that exporting new energy reactors will reinforce nonproliferation, because it will come with the appliance of “improved” nuclear examinations, in many of the most troublesome instances, even improved assessments are too untrustworthy to efficiently discourage or stop important military distractions.7 Currently, international nuclear examinations are not upholding stability of examinations over most of the earth’s exhausted or clean fuel – materials that can be applied as input for nuclear enhancement and reprocessing-creation industries to speed up the making of weapons-exploitable materials.
Nuclear proliferation and its importance
Although Iran continues to be a signatory of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NTP) and has not created a nuclear bomb, the international community is disappointed at Iran‘s lack of observance to treaties, its continuous disguise of information and lack of full collaboration. Further complicating Iranian nuclear program risk is the reality that Iran is mounting missiles and more dreadfully, long series missiles. Though, Iranian scientists maintain these missiles are not capable to bear nuclear warheads and do not indicate a future missile with a nuclear head, Iran did not infringe on the NPT. Additionally, in reference to the 2003 IAEA report, it was uncertain that Iran had all the materials necessary for the assembly of a nuclear weapon.8 Regardless of this truth, for decades, nations like the United States and Britain have been hypothesizing that Iran is only days away from mounting a nuclear bomb. Nonetheless, forecasts of an Iranian bomb have not yet materialized. Consequently, Western media often depicts Iran as an anti-Western country due to the present administration‘s foreign policies and nuclear ambitions. But, Iran has been following nuclear expertise since Shah‘s government, when US-Iranian rapport was sociable.9 Those who think that Iran is following a military nuclear program debate current development in the nuclear program are not required for energy reasons and gesture production of a nuclear weapon. As well, given Iran‘s huge quantities of oil and gas preserves, the nation does not require extra energy reserves.
Additionally, opponents stay doubtful because Iran formerly did not completely reveal all data concerning its nuclear program to the IAEA and still may be concealing information about a nuclear program.10 Those that trust Iran is not going to obtain nuclear weapons emphasize that Iran is a party to the NPT, reemphasize Iran‘s legitimacy to nuclear energy, and quote Khomeini‘s religious fatwa. Despite of the argument around its aims, Iran is still a party to the NPT and persists to assert that its nuclear program is for nonviolent purposes. Till now, the international society should get ready for a world order in which Iran does possess nuclear weapons. Most nations do not wish for to believe an Iranian bomb. Countries that are constituents of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an organization dedicated to thwarting nuclear weapons proliferation, have put economic sanctions on Iran for the reason that they were notified by IAEA reports and progress in Iran‘s nuclear program. Anyway, many inquiries about whether Iran will in fact postpone its nuclear program, cave under economic sanctions and concede to international pressures. Bahgat contends that situation is doubtful due to the level of financial and human capital and national status Iran has spent into its program. Iran is enduring with its nuclear agenda in spite of barricades that are harmfully affecting its citizens.
The purpose of this paper will be to discover how deceit and denial tactics can be used to effective solve nuclear problems in Iran and other countries. I will use case studies in my research on Iran’s nuclear program. Because of information on intelligence is highly classified, I will opt to apply case studies on Iran, Pakistan and Iraq’s nuclear program. An Iranian nuclear program will influence Pakistan‘s economic and domestic well-being. Subsequently, I want to research on a nuclear-prepared Iran since it is contemporary. Since it is likely in the future and its effects could be grave, many researchers have studied work on how Iran will influence the Middle East and the United States. Nonetheless, there has not been research done on how deceit and deception tactics can influence and contain nuclear possessed countries such as Pakistan and help better their domestic solidity and minimize sectarian conflict. I believe it is imperative to study Pakistan in conjunction with a nuclear-armed Iran since Pakistan also has nuclear weapons and is an unbalanced nation.
Additionally, a nuclear-equipped Iran is of alarm for Pakistan since it is Pakistan‘s neighbor. I as well select these two nations since the best part of their inhabitants are form to two dissimilar wings in Islam: Sunni and Shia. Even though the Iran-Pakistan rapport seems peaceful, there are fundamental issues that I wish to investigate. I chose intelligence on nuclear weapons as my autonomous variable since they are a central feature of Pakistan‘s foreign policy, and since the correlation between two nuclear-armed countries is a lot intricate. An entire field of research, nuclear theories, relates to nuclear-armed countries and might not relate to the most of other non-nuclear countries on earth. Deceit and denial tactics as methods of solving nuclear conflicts are my dependent variables since they seem to be getting better every day and I need to learn why they are improving and if the position could become much better. I will observe historical relations between Iran, Pakistan, and Iraq; see how these nations have applied deception tactics in their foreign policies and how those policies delude their western counterparts.11
Most significantly, I will investigate how deception policies affect Iran. I will read case studies related to Iranian and Pakistan’s nuclear programs and the underlying issues in their relationships with one another. I will include a quantitative aspect into my exploration as well. One of the biggest barriers I will face in this research will be lack of information. Many of the subjects that I am investigating are classified and secretive, and consequently, official data are not easily accessible. Additionally, many websites connected to my topic are in coded languages. If I am acquainted with these languages, I would be capable to comprehend more about specific institutes and their connections to the problem of intelligence on deceit and denial. A range of websites have placed diverse statistics and truths, and I will attempt to cite information that has been referenced by a number of sources and the most trustworthy sources.12 As a student, I will not able to do widespread field research and talk to people connected with my topic. Nevertheless, I will try to innovatively read scholarly works and incorporate the most pertinent case study information. Hence, my research has been largely drawn from the work of United States intelligence analysts and nuclear theory experts. Current news articles will be a first-rate source of data. For instance, New York Times, a believable newspaper will be an outstanding source of information from an Iranian perspective.13
Problems and hypotheses
Iran is a complicated case for intelligence. Most noticeably, the conclusions on its nuclear program are prepared at the uppermost levels, and nearly undoubtedly the question we are most concerned in – how intelligence on denial and deceit tactics on Iran’s nuclear program can help predict ongoing nuclear programs? – will be determined by the top most leaders. I believe it is a secure assumption that we lack human access to them, and certainly probably comprehend little about whom, if anyone, they would discuss with. While a quick look at the newspaper articles about the political in-fighting in Iran informs us that the condition is extremely unpleasant, I doubt that we have enough of information of exactly what is happening and how the factional arrangements are influencing nuclear policy. There will be two major problems towards using intelligence on deceit and denial as a predictive tool on the ongoing nuclear programs in Iran. First, to the level that Iran perceives the United States as libel, deceitful, and disinclined to live with the system even if it contains its nuclear aspirations, this image is discrepant with the American identity-image. This informs strategy-drafters that they are contributors of the crisis. This is an opinion that the majority people try to defend against, and is a point that is insulting for the Intelligence Council to debate about.14 I am convinced that members of the Obama government think that under their administration the U.S. has successfully talked to Iran in general and the top leader specifically. I have reservations in believing that the Iranian political leaders have the same view of Obama’s strategy. A subsequent and slenderer but still significant difficulty is that the Intelligence Council may be uninformed of many features of American strategy that infringe on Iran. Otherwise, to be more specific, the logical part of the intelligence council may be ignorant of any secret actions that the U.S. is performing. In this instance, the members of the Intelligence who are attempting to elucidate and foretell Iranian conduct are not expected to recognize the amount of the American cyber-disruption programs, whether the U.S. was actually backing some of the internal conflict in Iran in 2009, or was connected in the murder of Iranian nuclear scientists. Lastly, the complicated duty of translating this knowledge into intelligence considerations would remain. An essential but not adequate hypothesis for excellent investigation here is taking American strategy as the Iranians are expected to see it as a key factor impacting their conduct.
I have selected a simple traditional format for my research paper. I will start by examining this poorly understood concept of statecraft denial and deceit tactic. This tool concerns the military, fiscal, and diplomatic fields of a countries power when applied on a tactical role. Denial and deceit strategy may be seen as a skill, one that demands elegance, confidentiality, understanding, and dexterity. As literature has evidenced, when deceit and denial tactic is effectively implemented, it can assist to conserve a countries’ power and human value. I will start my research by examining the dimensions of this concept in terms of tactical versus operational, and counterintelligence versus convert actions. I will also attempt to explain the importance of comprehending the virtues of deceit and denial and how they apply as predictive policy tool to investigate current nuclear programs.
I will also analyze the idea of opinion management as a type of deception and underlining of fact in preference to the normally agreed view that deception entails falsehood and deceit to attain foreign policy objectives. The research will also examine well recognized practitioners of deception and deceit–Iran, Pakistan and Iraq and study at what level in their nuclear development stage they exploit this device of statecraft.15 This specific selection of case studies will defy a frequently held perception that deception is exclusively a devise of manipulating foreign diplomatic policies. The last part will center on the printed works of past and present United States intelligence experts who depict deceit and denial as foreign strategy devise that has mostly remained ignored by many western countries.
Bhalla, Reva. “Finding virtue in strategic denial and deception.” PhD dissertation. 2011. https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553451/bhallaReva.pdf?sequence=1
Godson, Roy, and James Wirtz. Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 2011.
Jadwiga, Rogoza. “Russian Propaganda war: media as a long-range and short-range weapon,” osrodek Studio Wschodnich (Centre for Eastern Studies), 2008. http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2008-09-11/russion-propaganda-war-media-long-and-short-range-weapon.
Jennings, Melissa. Weapons-Free Zones Featured Authors are WIIS Members. California: Winter, 2007.
Johnson, Loch. National Security Intelligence. New York: Polity, 2011. http://books.google.co.ke/books?id=PeXzH6G0NE8C&pg=PA206&lpg=PA206&dq=%E2%80%9CIntelligence,+Counterintelligence,+Perception+and+Deception,%E2%80%9D&source=bl&ots=iWX2A27_oq&sig=gi3xcHQ56b0LpVv81TITlQcgWXw&hl=en&sa=X&ei=8amgUorUAo7xhQfDsoBQ&ved=0CFQQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9CIntelligence%2C%20Counterintelligence%2C%20Perception%20and%20Deception%2C%E2%80%9D&f=false
Roger, Jervis. “Intelligence, Counterintelligence, Perception and Deception.” Eurasia Daily Monitor 6, no. 220, (2009): 1.
Young, William, and Robert Worth. “Iran now says nuclear scientist was double agent,” The New York Times, July 21, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/world/middleeast/22iran.html?_r=0
Roy Godson, and James Wirtz, Strategic Denial and Deception: The Twenty-First Century Challenge, (New York: Transaction Publishers, 2011), 8.
Rogoza Jadwiga, “Russian Propaganda war: media as a long-range and short-range weapon,” (Centre for Eastern Studies), 2008.
William Young, and Robert Worth, “Iran now says nuclear scientist was double agent,” The New York Times, 21 July 21 2010.
Melissa Jennings, Weapons-Free Zones Featured Authors are WIIS Members, (California: Winter, 2007), 1.
Loch Johnson. National Security Intelligence, (New York: Polity, 2011), 25.
Jervis Roger, “Intelligence, Counterintelligence, Perception and Deception,” Eurasia Daily Monitor 6, no. 220 (2009): 1.
Reva Bhalla, “Finding virtue in strategic denial and deception,” PhD dissertation, 2011.